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摩根士丹利:战术上看多美元建议通过这两大货币对来做多

发表日期:2018-4-16  来源:38财富网   作者:38财富网  

dafabet888:AwomanholdsaPro-BrexitballooninapubataneventtocelebratetheinvokingofArticle50afterBritain'sPrimeMinisterTheresaMaytriggeredtheprocessbywhichtheUnitedKingdomwillleavetheEuropeanUnion,inLondon,BritainMarch29,2017.[Photo/Agencies]LONDON-TheformaltriggeringofArticle50byBritaintoquittheEuropeanUnion(EU)onWednesdaydrewmixedreactionsonLondonstreets."IguessweareallBrexiteersnow,butIreallywishthishadnothappened,"saidPhilPatterson,ateacherfromBermondsey."Ivotedremain,butitwasaclosecallforme.Intheend,Ichosetoputsecurityaheadofhavingourownparliamenttotallyinchargeandmyviewshaven'tchangedsincethereferendum,"hesaid.BermondseyisaworkingclassareaofLondon.ItisclosetothenewfinancialcenterofCanaryWharf,whereinternationalbanksandfinanceinstitutionsemploytensofthousandsofworkers.GoldmanSachsannouncedlastweekthatoverthenext18months,itintendedtoincreaseitspresenceinFrankfurtandParisasaresultoftheBrexitprocess.GoldmanSachsInternationalCEORichardGnoddesaidthatthenumbersinvolvedwereinthehundreds.ButonFridaylastweek,DeutscheBanksaidthatitwouldbuildanewheadquartersinLondonforitsstaff,whoarecurrentlyworkingatseveralsitesacrossthecity.OveratCanaryWharf,bankingemployeesexpressedtheiropiniontoXinhuaaboutArticle50ontheirlunchbreak.AfinancialanalystwhohavereceivededucationinBritainbutwithanoverseasbackground,whoaskednottobenamed,saidthatitwasunclearhowtheBrexitprocesswouldaffectthefinancialsector.HeaddedthathebelievedthatLondon'sstatusasaglobalfinancialhubwouldnotbelost,butthatitcouldchange."Weknewthiswascoming.I'msuremyjobissafe,butIwishwehadn'tdonethis.Itwillmakeitharderforsureforsomebusinessesinmysector,"hesaid.BankworkerLouiseDaviessaidshehadvotedforBrexitandwaspleasedithadnowformallybegun."TheEUlikestotelluswhattodo,andIhopethisendsthat,"shesaid.BeforetheBrexitreferendumonJune23lastyear,expertshadpredictedthatavotetoleavewouldhittheBritisheconomy.SinceJune23,thepoundhasfallenagainstforeigncurrencies,forexampletheUSdollar.Ittradedat1.48USdollarsonthenightofthereferendumandonWednesdaytradedat1.24USdollars.ThismakesBritishexportscheaperbutalsomakesrawmaterialsandimportsmoreexpensive.Thishasbeenquicklyfeltintheeconomywithinflationnowat2.3percentontheCPImeasure,upfrom0.6percentbeforethevote.Butthehittotheeconomythatsomeexpertspredictedhasnothappened,andGDPgrowthhasremainedrobust,withannualizedgrowthsincetheJunevoteat2.5percent,whichisabovethelong-termtrend."Weweretoldthatleavingwouldbebadfortheeconomy,butthathasn'thappened,"saidDavies.OutsideasupermarketinLewisham,asouthLondonboroughwhichvotedstronglytoremainintheEUandwhichhassignificantnumbersofimmigrantsfrominsidetheEU,theCommonwealthandfromdevelopingnations,thereweresupportivereactionstoleaving.PaulLee,anelectricianoriginallyfromWalesandworkingonamajorconstructionprojectinLondon,saidthatpayandbenefitsinhisindustryhadnotimprovedoverthepast10yearsandhadgotworse.HelookedtoanimprovementonceBritainwasoutoftheEU."Ivotedtoleave,becauseourjobshavegonetoforeigners,"hesaid.JohnRoyle,awelder,saidhewasnowearninglessthan17yearsagoandhisworkcontractswerelesssecure."JobsgotoPolesandRomanians,"hesaid,addingthathewantedthistochangeonceBritainwasoutoftheEU.

FX168财经报社(香港)讯 摩根士丹利研究团队周五(4月13日)撰文就美元的前景进行了讨论。该行表示,近期内,仍在战术上看多美元,并建议通过持有瞄准110的美元/日元看多头寸和目标指向0.6900的澳元/美元看空头寸来做多美元。

该行预计,风险情绪仍将受到支撑,因股市料将表现良好,全球宏观经济不确定性指标仍处于相当低的水平。由于债市波动性较低,这料促使日本投资者买入美国资产,这将推动美元/日元上升。

美联储3月会议纪要确认了美国前景仍然稳健,近期美元对美国数据做出的积极反应令使得美元受到支撑。

摩根士丹利指出,该行仍做多美元/日元,目标瞄准110,并认为澳元/美元看似脆弱。随着中国本周传出的消息有利于风险情绪,我们看到澳元上涨,并触及我们的入场点位0.7770,由此开始做空澳元/美元头寸。

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